CERP has recently released findings from the November 2020 Economic Vulnerability Assessment (EVA). The Economic Vulnerability Assessment is a phone survey conducted by CERP, which examines the economic impact of COVID-19 on households in Punjab. The first and second rounds were conducted in June/July and September/October, 2020, respectively.
The main findings from Round 2 (conducted during Sept 2 – Oct 13) are:
Income
The fraction of respondents saying they have lost the job they had in February decreased from 22.9% in Round 1 to 5.5% in Round 2. Twenty-one percent of respondents report being unemployed in Round 2 in both rural and urban areas, compared with 34.5% of urban respondents and 31.6% of rural respondents in Round 1.
Average incomes decreased by 25% in Round 1 (between February 2020 and May 2020) and 11% in Round 2 (between February 2020 and August 2020); reported incomes depict an overall improvement by 14 percentage points. Overall, 39.2% of households reported income losses in Round 2, compared to 47.8% in Round 1. However, the recovery is driven entirely by urban areas which were hit harder in the initial fallout from the pandemic. The fraction of urban households reporting a loss in income since February fell from 63.1% in Round 1 to 38.1% in Round 2, whereas there was a slight increase in the fraction of rural households reporting a loss in income since February from 32.7% to 39.6% over the same period.
Higher educated individuals – those with more than matric schooling – experienced larger income losses initially but also saw a larger rebound in incomes between Rounds 1 and 2, compared to those with less education. Among respondents with more than matric schooling, 55.7% reported an income loss relative to February in Round 1, which fell to 37.0% in Round 2. In contrast, among respondents with less than matric schooling, 45.8% reported an income loss relative to February in Round 1 which fell only slightly to 40.7% in Round 2.
It is notable that households with incomes below the sample median (earlier this year in February) were more likely to see income recover. However, the share of such households at the margin of poverty (earning less than Rs. 17,500 per month) remains high and largely unchanged, at around 70%.
Households expect significant increases in income in the next month, relative to their incomes in August. Expectations are higher for households earning below-median income in February.
Spending
Unlike incomes, household spending has increased from its February levels. On average, households in Round 2 reported slightly increased spending (0.8%) since February. Households also expect spending to continue to grow in the short term (by 5.4% in the next month). The impacts do not differ systematically between rural and urban areas.
Financial Outcomes
A third of households (27.5%) have missed at least one monthly payment in Round 2, and 30.3% expect to miss a payment in the next month. This is a sharp improvement from 48% of households missing at least one payment in Round 1. The most common form of payment that is being missed by households continues to be electricity bills. Financial distress levels continue to be higher in rural areas.
In Round 2, 23% of households reported borrowing money in the past two months (July-August). Though a lower proportion borrowed than in Round 1, the average amount borrowed (conditional on borrowing) was higher. Family/friends remain the main source of borrowed money.
Food
Half of households (51%) in Round 2 and 46% in Round 1 had to make some compromise on food, including relying on less expensive food items, going to bed hungry, reducing the size of meals, or relying on friends/relatives or donations for food.
Thirteen percent of households were unable to buy essential food items in the last 7 days – a decline of 4.5 percentage points compared to Round 1. A larger proportion of these respondents belong to rural areas.
Lack of resources and inflation were cited as the main reasons for this food insecurity: 87% reported a lack of resources (not enough money), and 53% of these households reported that food items were more expensive than usual as factors driving their inability to buy essential food items
Cash and In-Kind Support
In Round 2, 12% of households report receiving cash or in-kind support. Ninety percent of these households reported getting this assistance through the Ehsaas program, while 4% reported some other government program. Few respondents in distress reported receiving support: only 9% of respondents who were unemployed in both February and August this year, and only 21.1% of respondents with February incomes of less than Rs. 17,500 per month, reported receiving some kind of cash/in-kind support.
Concerns of Households
Similar to Round 1, the main concern for households in Round 2 was income/employment, with 34% of households citing it as their top most concern. Sixty-five percent of households cited income/employment in their top 3 concerns.
Health is the main concern for only 9.5% of households, compared with 14.6% in Round 1. Inflation was cited as the top concern by 25.3% of respondents (up from 16.1% in Round 1).
Health
Seven percent of households in Round 2 have missed required vaccines for a child (down from 12.2% in Round 1), with 93% citing the lack of a polio vaccine drive as the primary reason for missing it.
Twenty-six percent of households in Round 2 reported that someone in the household felt anxiety, loneliness, or depression in the past 7 days, while 42.1% reported the same in Round 1. Many households have resumed seeking healthcare, and the effects on mental health are also significantly improved. Only 1.4% in Round 2 reported not going to a doctor even when someone was sick, compared to 6.9% in Round 1.

COVID-19
Nearly 83% of households in Round 2 think lockdowns are at least moderately effective for slowing the spread of the virus, compared to 76% in Round 1.
In Round 2, a majority (68%) of respondents are worried about the spread of COVID-19. The proportion of respondents taking various precautionary measures went down from Round 1 to Round 2. Respondents also tend to report taking precautions themselves at substantially higher rates than they estimate others around them to be.Although 75% of respondents in Round 2 report wearing a mask themselves when leaving the home, they estimate that only 34 out of 100 households in their area wear masks.
Sixty-seven percent of households in Round 2 report that they would get a vaccine against COVID-19 if it became available.